Everyone wants to know what tech’s next big wave will be and when it will get here. As Silicon Valley’s longest-serving CEO, I think I can offer some viable prognostication.

‘When’ May Be More Important Than ‘What’

First and foremost, be patient. We are in a tech industry up-cycle at present, and this wave needs to crest and fall before the next big thing can worm its way to the surface.

Tech industry up-cycles last between three and five years. From my industry, semiconductors, you can clearly see every cycle because our chips are required to make whatever products are the subject of any tech wave.

One current tech wave is composed of AI and IoT, both of which employ some specialized semiconductors as part of the product mix. This wave is about three years old, retarded ever so slightly by an eight-year recession (one that is thankfully behind us now). We have maybe another year or two left in the tech up-cycle.

Which leads to the inevitable down-cycle. In tech, down-cycles last one to two years, during which there will be plenty of merger-and-acquisition activity, but not much new in terms of ready tech with ready demand. Also, during this time, two types of tech vendors get very active: the established vendors creating new or augmented products for new markets and disruptive startups who are inventing the next big thing.

IoT has not fully run its course, but it is showing its stretch marks in certain submarkets. Home digital assistants are commonplace, and the lack of utility on smart appliances leaves little in the consumer IoT space. The industrial side launched the IoT revolution and has made truly productive use of integrated machines. There is room for further commoditization, but (with the futures exception below) I believe it has otherwise peaked.

Catching The Next Wave